Botanical-climatological transfer function for the reconstruction of the paleoclimate

The climate indicator-species method is based on observations of current geobotany, according to which recent distribution areas or area limits of selected plant species may depend on specific climate parameters. These relationships are transferred to the past by using fossil pollen and plant macroremains. In the meantime, classical methods have been substantially extended and modified by computer-aided statistical methods.

The so-called pdf method (pdf – probability density function) uses reconstruction-related probability density functions, whereby a high-resolution global climatology with distribution areas of the plant species are linked. The statistical approach provides a most probable climate by combining (multiplying) the pdfs of several species occurring together in a fossil pollen and/or macro sample.

Fig.1: Three-dimensional plot of likelihoods and posterior of Carpinus betulus (European hornbeam) as visualisation of the Bayes theorem. © AG Litt

Abb. 2 Transfer function_aglitt_aglitt_.jpg

Fig.2: The likelihoods of Carpinus betulus (European hornbeam). © AG Litt

Literature:

Gebhardt, C., Kühl, N., Hense, A. and Litt, T. 2008. „Reconstruction of Quaternary temperature fields by dynamically consistent smoothing“. Climate Dynamics. 30(4): 421-437.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-007-0299-9

Kühl, N., Litt, T., Schölzel, C. and Hense, A. 2007. „Eemian and Early Weichselian temperature and precipitation variability in northern Germany“. Quaternary Science Reviews. 26(25-28): 3311-3317.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2007.10.004

Kühl, N. & Litt, T. 2007. „Quantitative Time Series Reconstructions of Holsteinian and Eemian Temperatures Using Botanical Data.“. In: The climate of past interglacials. 239-254. Sirocko, F., Claussen, M., Sanchez Goñi, M.F., Litt, T. (Eds.). Elsevier, Amsterdam.

Kühl, N. & Litt, T. 2003. „Quantitative time series reconstruction of Eemian temperature at three European sites using pollen data.“. Vegetation history and Archaeobotany. 12: 205-214.

Kühl, N., Gebhardt, C., Litt, T. and Hense, A. 2002. „Probability Density Functions as Botanical-Climatological Transfer Functions for Climate Reconstruction“. Quaternary Research. 58(3): 381-392.
https://doi.org/10.1006/qres.2002.2380

LITT, T., SCHÖLZEL, C., KÜHL, N. and BRAUER, A. 2009. „Vegetation and climate history in the Westeifel Volcanic Field (Germany) during the past 11 000 years based on annually laminated lacustrine maar sediments“. Boreas. 38(4): 679-690.
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1502-3885.2009.00096.x

Miebach, A., Stolzenberger, S., Wacker, L., Hense, A. and Litt, T. 2019. „A new Dead Sea pollen record reveals the last glacial paleoenvironment of the southern Levant“. Quaternary Science Reviews. 214: 98-116.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2019.04.033

Neumann, F., Schölzel, C., Litt, T., Hense, A. and Stein, M. 2007. „Holocene vegetation and climate history of the northern Golan heights (Near East)“. Vegetation History and Archaeobotany. 16(4): 329-346.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00334-006-0046-x